COMPS:
Al McMordieGAME: (904) PITTSBURGH PIRATES vs (903) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
SPORT: MLB
PICKS: (903) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
REASON FOR PICK: At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates. What's a team to do when, right after they get one of their top offensive stars back from the disabled list (Jimmy Rollins), they lose three other valuable hitters (Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz) as well as their best middle reliever and season leader in holds (Chad Durbin)? And add to those woes a loss in the first game of this series to one of the worst teams in the League? Naturally, all they need to do now is turn to their 47-year-old lefthanded starter! It's hard to believe, but Jamie Moyer has as many wins (nine) and fewer losses (six vs. seven) than ace Roy Halladay, and he's been their most effective starter over the last two weeks, going 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.57 WHIP over his last three starts. And in the second game of this series, Moyer's opposing pitcher is a guy (righthander Ross Ohlendorf) who has yet to find a win in his first 11 starts of the season (0-6) and he has an ERA of 4.90 to go along with the losing streak. Despite their run of recent bad luck, Philadelphia still has one of the best road records in the National League and they still have to be considered one of the favorites to not only win their division, but to go deep into the playoffs once again. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Roz JuarbeGAME: (918) NEW YORK YANKEES vs (917) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
SPORT: MLB
PICKS: Over
REASON FOR PICK: The new Yankee Stadium is even more of a home run happy park than the old Yankee stadium. The Bronx Bombers are tops in baseball in runs scored, while Toronto is tops in home runs. A pair of struggling pitchers take the hill, too. Brett Cecil is 0-3 with a 9.19 ERA his last three starts, while NY righty A.J. Burnett is in one of his downward trends, at 0-3 with a 16.55 ERA his last three. Burnett has walked 12 batters in his last 10 innings! Both bullpens are wearing down, too. Play the Blue Jays/Yankees Over the total.
EZWINNERS
EZ's Free Pick For Today
(903) Philadelphia Phillies -$151
6:05pm Central Time
The Phillies 47 year old starting pitcher Jamie Moyer just continues to get craftier and craftier the longer that he pitches. Moyer has succeeded this year with superb control and an increased ground ball rate. Moyer has won four of his last five starts, and he has not given up more than two runs in any of those four wins and over his last three starts Moyer is 3-0 with an ERA of just 1.96! The Pirates starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is a minor league talent that remains in the starting rotation for a lack of a better alternative. Ohlendorf remains winless on the season with an 0-6 record and an ERA of 4.90 in eleven starts and I expect the Philadelphia offense to knock him around in this game. The Pirates are only 3-13 in Ohlendorfs last sixteen starts and the Phillies are 8-3 in the last eleven meetings between these two teams. I look for that success to continue here. Play on Philadelphia.
Matt Fargo
MLB | Jul 02
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres Houston Astros
+150 at SPBOOK > 11h.
This is a great number for the Astros who have been playing some very solid baseball of late. They are 6-3 over their last nine games as the offense has started to finally find a groove. The Padres have dropped three of their last four including the opener last night as over a two-to-one chalk. Getting Roy Oswalt as an underdog in this spot is a bargain in my opinion. Getting him coming off his worst putting of the season makes it even better as the value is there as is the bounce back probability. He started the season with 10 straight quality starts before falling down in two outings but he came back with three more quality efforts prior to his last game at Texas. Looking at his slate and you will see that the Astros are 2-6 in the eight starts that he has been an underdog. There is a reason for that however as five of those losses came against Tim Lincecum three times, Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez so it make sense. Oswalt has a 2.88 ERA in six road starts this season, five of which have been quality outings with the Astros going 4-2 in those games. Going against San Diego has been a winning proposition as he has a 2.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 14 career starts where he is 10-2 and Houston is 11-3 in those games. This includes a 3-1 record and 2.51 ERA in five starts in Petco Park. Mat Latos has been outstanding this season for the Padres as he is 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 15 starts. He has been tough to beat but the one way he has been beaten is by his own team as the run production has been horrid. San Diego is averaging only 3.7 rpg in his starts including the exact same at home where the Padres are just 3-3 in his six home starts. He dominated the Astros in Houston in his first start against them but that was two months ago and Houston has found its production at the plate since then. The Astros are 62-28 in Oswalt’s last 90 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Padres are 1-7 in their last eight home games against right-handed starters. After last night, Houston has taken 10 of the last 13 meetings. 3* Houston Astros
Robbie Gainous
MLB | Jul 02
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins
+106 at 5DIMES > 9h.
The Rays took the first game of their four-game set versus the Twins on Thursday night by a score of 5 to 4. Minnesota will look to rebound and capture a victory in Game 2 on Friday night with Scott Baker taking the bump to face the Rays left-hander David Price. Tampa Bay is 22-37 (-23.4 Units) when playing against a team with a win percentage of fifty-four to sixty-two percent over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 60-32 (+22.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Twins are 40-17 in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game, 28-12 in home games versus a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start and 37-17 in home games versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better the last three seasons. Our TPR Index projects a Twins victory by 1.1 runs and our Math Model favors the host as well with a 1.04 run advantage. We will back the home underdog here as the Twins even this series at a game apiece on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Minnesota Twins 3 Tampa Bay Rays 2
Doc’s Sports
MLB | Jul 02
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Total
8½ un+100 at 5DIMES > 7h.
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Philadelphia and Pittsburgh under 8.5 runs. Jamie Moyer is in the groove right now, and there is no reason to assume that that is going to end against an underwhelming Pittsburgh offense. More has a stunning WHIP of just 0.565 in his last three starts and that’s against a couple of good hitting teams in Toronto and the Yankees. Ross Ohlendorf is pitching well as well - no earned runs last time out, and respectable numbers across the board - especially for a guy who doesn’t throw strikeouts. Pittsburgh has gone under this number the last six games, and Philly isn’t exactly burning the world up with their offense lately. Jump on Doc’s Sports Friday MLB card now! Doc has been tearing up the books this week and you can expect more of the same on Friday!
BRETT ATKINS
I delivered the free winner for you on Thursday night when the Rays rallied to beat the Twins in Minnesota. Tonight I have another as I'm going with the Dodgers to grab the road win in Arizona. OK, here comes the D’Backs with Mr. 149-pitch Edwin Jackson on the hill for the first time since that crazy no-hitter in Tampa. And he has to face the Dodgers, a team that has owned the D’Backs this season and over the last few years.That’s why the play tonight is on Los Angeles as they’ve won seven straight over Arizona and 24 of the last 32, including six of seven in Phoenix.Hiroki Kuroda is on the mound for Los Angeles and he’s faced the D’Backs twice this season, allowing four earned runs in 14-1 innings and leading the Dodgers to two wins.Last time Jackson faced the Dodgers in Phoenix, he allowed six runs in 6.2 innings of a 6-3 loss back in May. Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 12-4 when Kuroda gets five days off and 8-2 when he pitches the series opener.
I’m going with the Dodgers in this one.
3? L.A. DODGERS (on a 1? to 5?)
JAY MC NEIIL
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
I know the Phillies are banged up pretty good, but they can't possibly succomb to the Bucs again ... not the lowly PIrates!
The bats will get going against Ros Ohlendorf, who is winless in 16 starts since beating Milwaukee on Aug. 18. On the year he's 0-6 with a 4.90 ERA.And since the team has scored just 10 runs in its last five games and Ohlendorf generally doesn't get any run support - the offense provides him with an average of 2.37 runs per game - this is the right spot to back the Phils.
Instead, back Jamie Moyer, who has posted a 1.96 ERA in winning his last three starts.
2? PHILLIES RUN LINE (List Moyer and Ohlendorf)
(on a 1? to 5? scale)
JOEL TYSON
Nothing like opening a holiday weekend series with some fireworks on the mound.
That is what I expect tonight between Josh Johnson and Kris Medlen, as I look for the Marlins-Braves to easily hold under the posted total.
Johnson comes in with a sparkling 1.83 ERA for the year, and in his 16 starts this season, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 13 of them!
Medlen comes into this one with a perfect 4-0 mark this season, and he is fresh off 7 innings of 1 run ball in a win against Detroit.
The Braves are on a 6-1-1 UNDER tear their last 8 games, and I see this one staying low as well.
Take the UNDER tonight in Atlanta.
4? UNDER
(on a 1? to 5? basis)
DEREK MANCINI
Two suddenly hot clubs collide at Progressive Field - and I'm seeing plenty of value in the road chalk here. Indians are winners of 5 straight, while the A's have won 5 of their L6 - but the difference comes on the mound. Bettors seem to like the idea of backing the surging Tribe, at home, with Talbot (8-6, 3.88 ERA) getting the nod. And normally I would agree, if not for the fact they were facing Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 3.74 ERA), who's dominated the Indians, going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in 3 career starts against them.
In his only start against them this season, he tossed 7 scoreless (5 hits) in the A's 11-0 shutout back on April 25th. What's more is the young lefty has been on a roll of late, posting a 0.69 ERA in his L2 starts. With the Athletics offense coming to life of late, averaging 6.6 runs per game over their L6 games, things are looking good for Oakland Friday.With that said, the line on this contest has to come into question. You've got a suddenly red-hot Indians team, starting their 2nd best pitcher behind Carmona, and yet Vegas is tempting us with plus money. That's no accident guys, as the books would like nothing more than to see the public all over the Tribe in this contest (which they are). Don't believe the hype. Oakland (Gonzalez) over Cleveland (Talbot) Friday.
3? OAKLAND ATHLETICS (on a 1? to 5? scale)
SCOTT DELANEY
Houston at San Diego
This happens to be as much of a pitchers' park as Denver's Coors Field is a hitters' park ... maybe even more so.
Not a whole helluva lot going on down there.
And with Roy Oswalt and Mat Latos taking the hill tonight, I suspect we're going to see an awfully low-scoring game.
While Latos is looking to win his fourth straight decision, Oswalt is trying to put on his best look these days, in the event he ends up on the trading block.Latos has a 1.89 ERA in 11 starts since the start of May - having given up two runs or fewer 10 times - while his .197 opponents’ batting average on the season is the best in the bigs.
For the veteran Oswalt, he should have plenty of confidence tonight, as he's 10-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts against San Diego.
This will be a duel at pitcher-friendly PETCO tonight.
2? UNDER Houston/San Diego (With Oswalt and Latos)
Based on 1? to 5?
BOBBY MAXWELL
The Astros should petition to play in the N.L. West again. They absolutely own the division-leading Padres and will get it done again tonight with Roy Oswalt (5-10, 3.55 ERA) on the hill. Houston has beaten San Diego 11 of the last 15 times they’ve met dating back to the 2008 campaign. The Astros took Game 1 of this four-game set on Thursday night and they’ve won four of their last five games in Petco Park. Oswalt is 4-2 on the road this season with a 2.88 ERA, and even though the Rangers got him for seven earned runs on Sunday, he has allowed two runs or less in four of his previous five roadies. Texas had won his prior three road starts. Against these Padres, Oswalt limited them to three runs in eight innings on May 9 when the Astros scored a 4-3 home win. Last time he pitched in Petco, he threw a two-hit complete-game and led the Astros to a 3-1 victory. Mat Latos has been outstanding on the hill for the Padres, but with this team, there is always the threat of the offense not showing up. Kind of like Thursday night when Houston beat the Padres.
Houston is 5-1 when Oswalt pitches in San Diego and 12-2 overall when he faces the Padres, 4-0 when he starts on Friday night and 44-19 when he pitches against N.L. West teams. San Diego has dropped three of four on this homestand, plus they are 1-6 at home against right-handed starters.
Let’s take advantage of this plus-money and go with Oswalt and the Astros.
2? HOUSTON (on a 1? to 5? Scale)
Stephen Nover
Today for my complimentary selection, I'm going to back the home underdog Pittsburgh Pirates against the banged-up Philadelphia Phillies.
The Pirates are semi-respectable at home going 17-19. They've won three of their last four games, while allowing just nine runs in their last five games.The Phillies are without injured second baseman Chase Utley and third baseman Placido Polanco, which has greatly weakened their infield. The replacements are Wilson Valdez and Greg Dobbs. Those two are not major league starters. In addition, the Phillies may be down to their third-string catcher as Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider are hurt, too. These injuries have had a trickle down effect as Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth are all slumping. Rollins is 2-for-17 in his last four games. Howard doesn't have an RBI in his last five games and Werth has gone seven straight games without an RBI.
The Phillies are going with ancient Jamie Moyer. He's actually pitched three strong games in a row. But he has yet to pitch four good games in a row, which is really too much to ask of the 47-year-old.The Pirates are going with Ross Ohlendorf, who is 0-6. The Pirates are anxious to get Ohlendorf his first win. He hasn't pitched as bad as his record. The Pirates have averaged just 2.3 runs during his starts. Ohlendorf certainly pitched well enough to win his last start, holding Oakland to two unearned runs on two hits in six innings this past Sunday on the road.
5? PITTSBURGH
Karl Garrett, Featured Handicapper
G-Man going with some "home-cooking" tonight, as I don't see any way the Mariners come up with a win at Comerica Park tonight.
Seattle just took 2 of 3 on the road at Yankee Stadium, and even with those 2 road wins, the M's are just 13-27 away from Safeco Field this season.The Mariners will start Doug Fister who has really cooled off after a hot spring, as his last 12 innings of work have seen 9 runs score for an 0-1 mark. He did work 7 innings of 2 run ball in a home no-decision against the Tigers back on May 25th, but I don't see him duplicating that feat on the road.Max Scherzer has picked his game up a notch of late, working 19 innings of 4 run ball his last 3 starts for a 2-0 ledger. With the Tigers in need of a win after dropping their last pair at Minnesota, look for their 25-11 home field mark to pay dividends tonight.
Go ahead and lay it with Scherzer and the Tigers as the Motown Cats tame the Mariners tonight.
2? DETROIT
Brad Diamond
Play Los Angeles over Arizona
A classic pitching affair unfolds out in the desert this evening in Arizona, it’s Kuroda (7-5, 3.27) of Los Angeles versus Jackson (5-6, 4.63) of Arizona. Our choice is the red hot Dodgers who just won three straight against the hated Giants, out scoring them 16-6. In addition, we show Los Angeles at 24-8 in the series overall, while the Snakes are 0-6 in the divison behind RHP Jackson.
Scott Spreitzer
Giants at Colorado
Pick: Giants
This is a solid spot to ride the arm of Tim Lincecum. The young righthander has normally followed a bad outing with a solid one. After four solid starts in a row, Lincecum lasted just three innings in his last outing. But the last eight times Lincecum has been pulled before reaching five full innings, he's been able to bounce back, more often than not. The last eight times in this situation, he has allowed just 14 earned runs in 52 1/3 innings, for a 2.41 ERA, to go along with a 9.64 K's per 9 IP ratio. The Giants are on a 36-17 run when Lincecum is favored, including 6-1 in the last seven on the road. Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin has been doing his best "Houdini" of late. The righthander owns a hefty 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts, but owns a 2.04 ERA over the same span. That's not going to last. I expect SFO to make him pay for allowing so many base runners. And this will be a start for Chacin on four days rest. The Rockies are on a 0-5 slide when he pitches this soon after a previous start. I'm backing the Giants to handle Colorado on Friday night.
TRACE ADAMS
FRIDAY'S Bonus Play - Tampa Bay Rays
Insider Sports Report MLB New York Mets (-120 )
CTSportsPicks MLB Cincinnati Reds (115)
Al McMordieGAME: (904) PITTSBURGH PIRATES vs (903) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
SPORT: MLB
PICKS: (903) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
REASON FOR PICK: At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates. What's a team to do when, right after they get one of their top offensive stars back from the disabled list (Jimmy Rollins), they lose three other valuable hitters (Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz) as well as their best middle reliever and season leader in holds (Chad Durbin)? And add to those woes a loss in the first game of this series to one of the worst teams in the League? Naturally, all they need to do now is turn to their 47-year-old lefthanded starter! It's hard to believe, but Jamie Moyer has as many wins (nine) and fewer losses (six vs. seven) than ace Roy Halladay, and he's been their most effective starter over the last two weeks, going 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.57 WHIP over his last three starts. And in the second game of this series, Moyer's opposing pitcher is a guy (righthander Ross Ohlendorf) who has yet to find a win in his first 11 starts of the season (0-6) and he has an ERA of 4.90 to go along with the losing streak. Despite their run of recent bad luck, Philadelphia still has one of the best road records in the National League and they still have to be considered one of the favorites to not only win their division, but to go deep into the playoffs once again. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Roz JuarbeGAME: (918) NEW YORK YANKEES vs (917) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
SPORT: MLB
PICKS: Over
REASON FOR PICK: The new Yankee Stadium is even more of a home run happy park than the old Yankee stadium. The Bronx Bombers are tops in baseball in runs scored, while Toronto is tops in home runs. A pair of struggling pitchers take the hill, too. Brett Cecil is 0-3 with a 9.19 ERA his last three starts, while NY righty A.J. Burnett is in one of his downward trends, at 0-3 with a 16.55 ERA his last three. Burnett has walked 12 batters in his last 10 innings! Both bullpens are wearing down, too. Play the Blue Jays/Yankees Over the total.
EZWINNERS
EZ's Free Pick For Today
(903) Philadelphia Phillies -$151
6:05pm Central Time
The Phillies 47 year old starting pitcher Jamie Moyer just continues to get craftier and craftier the longer that he pitches. Moyer has succeeded this year with superb control and an increased ground ball rate. Moyer has won four of his last five starts, and he has not given up more than two runs in any of those four wins and over his last three starts Moyer is 3-0 with an ERA of just 1.96! The Pirates starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is a minor league talent that remains in the starting rotation for a lack of a better alternative. Ohlendorf remains winless on the season with an 0-6 record and an ERA of 4.90 in eleven starts and I expect the Philadelphia offense to knock him around in this game. The Pirates are only 3-13 in Ohlendorfs last sixteen starts and the Phillies are 8-3 in the last eleven meetings between these two teams. I look for that success to continue here. Play on Philadelphia.
Matt Fargo
MLB | Jul 02
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres Houston Astros
+150 at SPBOOK > 11h.
This is a great number for the Astros who have been playing some very solid baseball of late. They are 6-3 over their last nine games as the offense has started to finally find a groove. The Padres have dropped three of their last four including the opener last night as over a two-to-one chalk. Getting Roy Oswalt as an underdog in this spot is a bargain in my opinion. Getting him coming off his worst putting of the season makes it even better as the value is there as is the bounce back probability. He started the season with 10 straight quality starts before falling down in two outings but he came back with three more quality efforts prior to his last game at Texas. Looking at his slate and you will see that the Astros are 2-6 in the eight starts that he has been an underdog. There is a reason for that however as five of those losses came against Tim Lincecum three times, Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez so it make sense. Oswalt has a 2.88 ERA in six road starts this season, five of which have been quality outings with the Astros going 4-2 in those games. Going against San Diego has been a winning proposition as he has a 2.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 14 career starts where he is 10-2 and Houston is 11-3 in those games. This includes a 3-1 record and 2.51 ERA in five starts in Petco Park. Mat Latos has been outstanding this season for the Padres as he is 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 15 starts. He has been tough to beat but the one way he has been beaten is by his own team as the run production has been horrid. San Diego is averaging only 3.7 rpg in his starts including the exact same at home where the Padres are just 3-3 in his six home starts. He dominated the Astros in Houston in his first start against them but that was two months ago and Houston has found its production at the plate since then. The Astros are 62-28 in Oswalt’s last 90 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Padres are 1-7 in their last eight home games against right-handed starters. After last night, Houston has taken 10 of the last 13 meetings. 3* Houston Astros
Robbie Gainous
MLB | Jul 02
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins
+106 at 5DIMES > 9h.
The Rays took the first game of their four-game set versus the Twins on Thursday night by a score of 5 to 4. Minnesota will look to rebound and capture a victory in Game 2 on Friday night with Scott Baker taking the bump to face the Rays left-hander David Price. Tampa Bay is 22-37 (-23.4 Units) when playing against a team with a win percentage of fifty-four to sixty-two percent over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 60-32 (+22.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Twins are 40-17 in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game, 28-12 in home games versus a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start and 37-17 in home games versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better the last three seasons. Our TPR Index projects a Twins victory by 1.1 runs and our Math Model favors the host as well with a 1.04 run advantage. We will back the home underdog here as the Twins even this series at a game apiece on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Minnesota Twins 3 Tampa Bay Rays 2
Doc’s Sports
MLB | Jul 02
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Total
8½ un+100 at 5DIMES > 7h.
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Philadelphia and Pittsburgh under 8.5 runs. Jamie Moyer is in the groove right now, and there is no reason to assume that that is going to end against an underwhelming Pittsburgh offense. More has a stunning WHIP of just 0.565 in his last three starts and that’s against a couple of good hitting teams in Toronto and the Yankees. Ross Ohlendorf is pitching well as well - no earned runs last time out, and respectable numbers across the board - especially for a guy who doesn’t throw strikeouts. Pittsburgh has gone under this number the last six games, and Philly isn’t exactly burning the world up with their offense lately. Jump on Doc’s Sports Friday MLB card now! Doc has been tearing up the books this week and you can expect more of the same on Friday!
BRETT ATKINS
I delivered the free winner for you on Thursday night when the Rays rallied to beat the Twins in Minnesota. Tonight I have another as I'm going with the Dodgers to grab the road win in Arizona. OK, here comes the D’Backs with Mr. 149-pitch Edwin Jackson on the hill for the first time since that crazy no-hitter in Tampa. And he has to face the Dodgers, a team that has owned the D’Backs this season and over the last few years.That’s why the play tonight is on Los Angeles as they’ve won seven straight over Arizona and 24 of the last 32, including six of seven in Phoenix.Hiroki Kuroda is on the mound for Los Angeles and he’s faced the D’Backs twice this season, allowing four earned runs in 14-1 innings and leading the Dodgers to two wins.Last time Jackson faced the Dodgers in Phoenix, he allowed six runs in 6.2 innings of a 6-3 loss back in May. Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 12-4 when Kuroda gets five days off and 8-2 when he pitches the series opener.
I’m going with the Dodgers in this one.
3? L.A. DODGERS (on a 1? to 5?)
JAY MC NEIIL
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
I know the Phillies are banged up pretty good, but they can't possibly succomb to the Bucs again ... not the lowly PIrates!
The bats will get going against Ros Ohlendorf, who is winless in 16 starts since beating Milwaukee on Aug. 18. On the year he's 0-6 with a 4.90 ERA.And since the team has scored just 10 runs in its last five games and Ohlendorf generally doesn't get any run support - the offense provides him with an average of 2.37 runs per game - this is the right spot to back the Phils.
Instead, back Jamie Moyer, who has posted a 1.96 ERA in winning his last three starts.
2? PHILLIES RUN LINE (List Moyer and Ohlendorf)
(on a 1? to 5? scale)
JOEL TYSON
Nothing like opening a holiday weekend series with some fireworks on the mound.
That is what I expect tonight between Josh Johnson and Kris Medlen, as I look for the Marlins-Braves to easily hold under the posted total.
Johnson comes in with a sparkling 1.83 ERA for the year, and in his 16 starts this season, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 13 of them!
Medlen comes into this one with a perfect 4-0 mark this season, and he is fresh off 7 innings of 1 run ball in a win against Detroit.
The Braves are on a 6-1-1 UNDER tear their last 8 games, and I see this one staying low as well.
Take the UNDER tonight in Atlanta.
4? UNDER
(on a 1? to 5? basis)
DEREK MANCINI
Two suddenly hot clubs collide at Progressive Field - and I'm seeing plenty of value in the road chalk here. Indians are winners of 5 straight, while the A's have won 5 of their L6 - but the difference comes on the mound. Bettors seem to like the idea of backing the surging Tribe, at home, with Talbot (8-6, 3.88 ERA) getting the nod. And normally I would agree, if not for the fact they were facing Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 3.74 ERA), who's dominated the Indians, going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in 3 career starts against them.
In his only start against them this season, he tossed 7 scoreless (5 hits) in the A's 11-0 shutout back on April 25th. What's more is the young lefty has been on a roll of late, posting a 0.69 ERA in his L2 starts. With the Athletics offense coming to life of late, averaging 6.6 runs per game over their L6 games, things are looking good for Oakland Friday.With that said, the line on this contest has to come into question. You've got a suddenly red-hot Indians team, starting their 2nd best pitcher behind Carmona, and yet Vegas is tempting us with plus money. That's no accident guys, as the books would like nothing more than to see the public all over the Tribe in this contest (which they are). Don't believe the hype. Oakland (Gonzalez) over Cleveland (Talbot) Friday.
3? OAKLAND ATHLETICS (on a 1? to 5? scale)
SCOTT DELANEY
Houston at San Diego
This happens to be as much of a pitchers' park as Denver's Coors Field is a hitters' park ... maybe even more so.
Not a whole helluva lot going on down there.
And with Roy Oswalt and Mat Latos taking the hill tonight, I suspect we're going to see an awfully low-scoring game.
While Latos is looking to win his fourth straight decision, Oswalt is trying to put on his best look these days, in the event he ends up on the trading block.Latos has a 1.89 ERA in 11 starts since the start of May - having given up two runs or fewer 10 times - while his .197 opponents’ batting average on the season is the best in the bigs.
For the veteran Oswalt, he should have plenty of confidence tonight, as he's 10-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts against San Diego.
This will be a duel at pitcher-friendly PETCO tonight.
2? UNDER Houston/San Diego (With Oswalt and Latos)
Based on 1? to 5?
BOBBY MAXWELL
The Astros should petition to play in the N.L. West again. They absolutely own the division-leading Padres and will get it done again tonight with Roy Oswalt (5-10, 3.55 ERA) on the hill. Houston has beaten San Diego 11 of the last 15 times they’ve met dating back to the 2008 campaign. The Astros took Game 1 of this four-game set on Thursday night and they’ve won four of their last five games in Petco Park. Oswalt is 4-2 on the road this season with a 2.88 ERA, and even though the Rangers got him for seven earned runs on Sunday, he has allowed two runs or less in four of his previous five roadies. Texas had won his prior three road starts. Against these Padres, Oswalt limited them to three runs in eight innings on May 9 when the Astros scored a 4-3 home win. Last time he pitched in Petco, he threw a two-hit complete-game and led the Astros to a 3-1 victory. Mat Latos has been outstanding on the hill for the Padres, but with this team, there is always the threat of the offense not showing up. Kind of like Thursday night when Houston beat the Padres.
Houston is 5-1 when Oswalt pitches in San Diego and 12-2 overall when he faces the Padres, 4-0 when he starts on Friday night and 44-19 when he pitches against N.L. West teams. San Diego has dropped three of four on this homestand, plus they are 1-6 at home against right-handed starters.
Let’s take advantage of this plus-money and go with Oswalt and the Astros.
2? HOUSTON (on a 1? to 5? Scale)
Stephen Nover
Today for my complimentary selection, I'm going to back the home underdog Pittsburgh Pirates against the banged-up Philadelphia Phillies.
The Pirates are semi-respectable at home going 17-19. They've won three of their last four games, while allowing just nine runs in their last five games.The Phillies are without injured second baseman Chase Utley and third baseman Placido Polanco, which has greatly weakened their infield. The replacements are Wilson Valdez and Greg Dobbs. Those two are not major league starters. In addition, the Phillies may be down to their third-string catcher as Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider are hurt, too. These injuries have had a trickle down effect as Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth are all slumping. Rollins is 2-for-17 in his last four games. Howard doesn't have an RBI in his last five games and Werth has gone seven straight games without an RBI.
The Phillies are going with ancient Jamie Moyer. He's actually pitched three strong games in a row. But he has yet to pitch four good games in a row, which is really too much to ask of the 47-year-old.The Pirates are going with Ross Ohlendorf, who is 0-6. The Pirates are anxious to get Ohlendorf his first win. He hasn't pitched as bad as his record. The Pirates have averaged just 2.3 runs during his starts. Ohlendorf certainly pitched well enough to win his last start, holding Oakland to two unearned runs on two hits in six innings this past Sunday on the road.
5? PITTSBURGH
Karl Garrett, Featured Handicapper
G-Man going with some "home-cooking" tonight, as I don't see any way the Mariners come up with a win at Comerica Park tonight.
Seattle just took 2 of 3 on the road at Yankee Stadium, and even with those 2 road wins, the M's are just 13-27 away from Safeco Field this season.The Mariners will start Doug Fister who has really cooled off after a hot spring, as his last 12 innings of work have seen 9 runs score for an 0-1 mark. He did work 7 innings of 2 run ball in a home no-decision against the Tigers back on May 25th, but I don't see him duplicating that feat on the road.Max Scherzer has picked his game up a notch of late, working 19 innings of 4 run ball his last 3 starts for a 2-0 ledger. With the Tigers in need of a win after dropping their last pair at Minnesota, look for their 25-11 home field mark to pay dividends tonight.
Go ahead and lay it with Scherzer and the Tigers as the Motown Cats tame the Mariners tonight.
2? DETROIT
Brad Diamond
Play Los Angeles over Arizona
A classic pitching affair unfolds out in the desert this evening in Arizona, it’s Kuroda (7-5, 3.27) of Los Angeles versus Jackson (5-6, 4.63) of Arizona. Our choice is the red hot Dodgers who just won three straight against the hated Giants, out scoring them 16-6. In addition, we show Los Angeles at 24-8 in the series overall, while the Snakes are 0-6 in the divison behind RHP Jackson.
Scott Spreitzer
Giants at Colorado
Pick: Giants
This is a solid spot to ride the arm of Tim Lincecum. The young righthander has normally followed a bad outing with a solid one. After four solid starts in a row, Lincecum lasted just three innings in his last outing. But the last eight times Lincecum has been pulled before reaching five full innings, he's been able to bounce back, more often than not. The last eight times in this situation, he has allowed just 14 earned runs in 52 1/3 innings, for a 2.41 ERA, to go along with a 9.64 K's per 9 IP ratio. The Giants are on a 36-17 run when Lincecum is favored, including 6-1 in the last seven on the road. Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin has been doing his best "Houdini" of late. The righthander owns a hefty 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts, but owns a 2.04 ERA over the same span. That's not going to last. I expect SFO to make him pay for allowing so many base runners. And this will be a start for Chacin on four days rest. The Rockies are on a 0-5 slide when he pitches this soon after a previous start. I'm backing the Giants to handle Colorado on Friday night.
TRACE ADAMS
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Found it!!
Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 over ARIZONA Pinnacle
One has to figure this to be a huge letdown spot for Edwin Jackson after throwing that unlikely no-hitter against the Rays in his last start. It’s also worth noting that he threw 149 pitches in that game and even before that he was averaging 113 pitches per game. There are most certainly workload concerns surrounding Jackson for the remainder of the year and it’s also worth noting that he’ll face the Dodgers for the third time this year and that, too, is unfavorable for him. Jackson has had 4½-years of mediocrity and his second half stats have always been worse than his first half stats. The Dodgers are hearting up again with four wins in its last five with only loss over that stretch being that bizarre loss to the Yanks in which they blew a four-run lead in the ninth. Furthermore, the Dodgers have scored 42 runs over its last seven games and this park caters to their slew of line drive hitters. In fact, when the Dodgers were here back in mid-may, they swept the D-Backs and scored 26 times in the three-game set. Hiroki Kuroda is quietly establishing himself as a reliable asset. Since coming to the U.S. in 2008, Kuroda has turned in two remarkably consistent seasons, posting ERAs of 3.73 and 3.76. Are his skills as good as his surface stats? Yes. In fact, there are a number of reasons to believe Kuroda really is this good. He had elite control in both of his seasons in the majors and prior ownership of that skill in Japan. He had an increase in skills in his second season, even as MLB hitters got a longer look at him and he had good-to-great xERA and BPV marks (see explanation of BPV and PQS at the bottom of this page) in three of his last four professional seasons. Kuroda is coming off a brilliant June with a 3.47 xERA and a 104 BPV. The Dodgers laying about 11 cents is a cheap lay but chances are if they win they’ll win going away, thus the run-line wager. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 over ARIZONA Pinnacle
One has to figure this to be a huge letdown spot for Edwin Jackson after throwing that unlikely no-hitter against the Rays in his last start. It’s also worth noting that he threw 149 pitches in that game and even before that he was averaging 113 pitches per game. There are most certainly workload concerns surrounding Jackson for the remainder of the year and it’s also worth noting that he’ll face the Dodgers for the third time this year and that, too, is unfavorable for him. Jackson has had 4½-years of mediocrity and his second half stats have always been worse than his first half stats. The Dodgers are hearting up again with four wins in its last five with only loss over that stretch being that bizarre loss to the Yanks in which they blew a four-run lead in the ninth. Furthermore, the Dodgers have scored 42 runs over its last seven games and this park caters to their slew of line drive hitters. In fact, when the Dodgers were here back in mid-may, they swept the D-Backs and scored 26 times in the three-game set. Hiroki Kuroda is quietly establishing himself as a reliable asset. Since coming to the U.S. in 2008, Kuroda has turned in two remarkably consistent seasons, posting ERAs of 3.73 and 3.76. Are his skills as good as his surface stats? Yes. In fact, there are a number of reasons to believe Kuroda really is this good. He had elite control in both of his seasons in the majors and prior ownership of that skill in Japan. He had an increase in skills in his second season, even as MLB hitters got a longer look at him and he had good-to-great xERA and BPV marks (see explanation of BPV and PQS at the bottom of this page) in three of his last four professional seasons. Kuroda is coming off a brilliant June with a 3.47 xERA and a 104 BPV. The Dodgers laying about 11 cents is a cheap lay but chances are if they win they’ll win going away, thus the run-line wager. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
